I was recently asked to share my thoughts on what the Fall market will be like in Winnipeg with Real Estate Magazine (REM). I like to share my predictions, just so we can see how accurate they turn out to be, months from now. Usually, there is a 50% chance I may just be right!
Without further adieu, here was my response to the magazine:
Winnipeg maintains its status as a stable yet predictable real estate market. While we might not have the flashy headlines of some other cities, our market consistently chugs along, usually on an upward trajectory.
For the past two decades, Winnipeg has been undeniably characterized as a Seller's Market. Since 2004, we've consistently witnessed remarkably high absorption rates, even as interest rates began their ascent in 2022. In August 2023, MLS sales recorded a 2% increase compared to the previous year and a concurrent 2% rise from July 2023. With the recent announcement by the Bank of Canada to maintain the Overnight Rate, there's every reason to believe that this upward trajectory will persist.
As vacancy rates have declined, they've exerted upward pressure on average rents, pushing them above the national average. Interestingly, while average rents have climbed, the average sales price for a residential detached home in Winnipeg remains approximately half of the national average. Consequently, the allure of buying in Winnipeg has grown significantly, appealing to both local buyers and out-of-province investors.
Our condominium market was the one exception to the upward trending market over the last decade. It experienced either declines or nearly stagnant sales for several years. However, we are now seeing renewed strength and nearly twice the volume of sell-through that we experienced pre-pandemic. Sales prices have surged by 5% this year, standing 10% above the five-year average. As the pandemic continues to wind down, I anticipate this resurgence will continue, marking an exciting time for condominium owners who have longed for gains in their equity, akin to their counterparts in the residential market.
Regrettably for buyers, the Seller's Market is expected to persist through the Fall of 2023. It will echo the familiar tune of the last two decades, characterized by high absorption rates, steady but measured increases in average sales prices, and the ever-present specter of bidding wars. In Winnipeg, slow and steady continues to be the winning strategy.
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